Austin Chamber of Commerce
Annual Economic Forecast, Nov. 23rd, 2009
Expect 2010 to be Good, not Great
- Expect slow steady GDP growth, around 2%.
- Consumer spending remains sub-par due to high debt levels
- Unemployment levels will hover at 10% in 2010, down to 9% in 2011.
- Inflation will remain subdued by high unemployment.
- Interest rates will stay low. Any increases by the federal reserve are unlikely until the 4th quarter of 2010.
- The dollar will weaken into 2011.
- Corporate earning will accelerate in 2010.
o Look for a 30% increase year-over-year S&P 500, up to an average of $74 per share in 2010.
o Investors waiting for top line sales to improve before getting back in the market will miss their moment. Top line revenues typically lag behind corporate earnings by about 3 months.
